Nghễnh ngãng Index

MorningStar said:
em dẹp rồi.. lắm điều tiếng quá :)
giải thích dài dòng.. mệt... em để xài thôi :33:
rất xin lỗi cụ :emoticon-00139-bow:
Click to expand...
Em có cmt cái gì đâu nhỉ, em chỉ xin cái ảnh nho nhỏ như ban đầu cụ post ấy ạ. Và cũng ko cần cụ giải thích, để em tự tưởng tượng phát cho nó sáng đầu óc cụ ơi. Năn nỉ nhé :)
 
Chán said:
Em có cmt cái gì đâu nhỉ, em chỉ xin cái ảnh nho nhỏ như ban đầu cụ post ấy ạ. Và cũng ko cần cụ giải thích, để em tự tưởng tượng phát cho nó sáng đầu óc cụ ơi. Năn nỉ nhé :)
Click to expand...
mấy con dun ấy quan trọng thế sao cụ @Chán ?????
 
Chán said:
Cần ngắm ngay hôm nay cụ Mo ơi, Mốc 610 của VNI, sao giống giống kéo - xả quá
Click to expand...
xem lại chart đoạn tháng 10/2013 - 12/2013, cũng kéo cả tháng có tăng đâu. Kệ nó đi bác, đợi lúc nào nó xả thì bán theo
 
tungneu said:
xem lại chart đoạn tháng 10/2013 - 12/2013, cũng kéo cả tháng có tăng đâu. Kệ nó đi bác, đợi lúc nào nó xả thì bán theo
Click to expand...
MorningStar said:
Cá nhân em thấy đang có ý đồ đánh break 610.88

bằng gì không biết.... nhưng xác xuất có vẻ cao
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Nói chung là mình không nên quá tự tin vào nhận định của mình rồi bỏ qua tín hiệu phát ra từ Market. Cẩn thận tí chắc cũng không sao các cụ nhỉ :). Bất cứ chiện j cũng có thể xảy ra ngay ngày mai mà !
 
TT đoạn này rất ma quái ....cách đánh rất khó chịu.....
không có chuyện lên cả làng ... mà là trò tiền vào dòng nước này ra dòng nước khác :)
dồn tiền vào vài mã, có thể sẽ phải chờ đợi rất lâu để dòng tiền chú ý đến :)
cũng có thể ăn cú tát gãy cả răng... nếu index cắm mỏ .... trong khi ngựa của mình nó đứng im một chỗ, của ông hàng xóm phi như... ngựa ....
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Chán said:
Nói chung là mình không nên quá tự tin vào nhận định của mình rồi bỏ qua tín hiệu phát ra từ Market. Cẩn thận tí chắc cũng không sao các cụ nhỉ :). Bất cứ chiện j cũng có thể xảy ra ngay ngày mai mà !
Click to expand...
  • Anything can happen
  • You can make money without knowing what is going to happen next
  • There is a random distribution of wins and losses that define an edge
  • An edge is just the greater probability of one thing happening over another
  • Every moment in the market is unique
10 Market Insights from Mark Douglas
  • Posted by Ivanhoff
  • on January 7th, 2013


Share on StockTwits
1. The four trading fears

95% of the trading errors you are likely to make will stem from your attitudes about being wrong, losing money, missing out, and leaving money on the table – the four trading fears

2. The proverbial empathy gap

You may already have some awareness of much of what you need to know to be a consistently successful trader. But being aware of something doesn’t automatically make it a functional part of who you are. Awareness is not necessarily a belief. You can’t assume that learning about something new and agreeing with it is the same as believing it at a level where you can act on it.

3. The market doesn’t generate happy or painful information

From the markets perspective, it’s all simply information. It may seem as if the market is causing you to feel the way you do at any given moment, but that’s not the case. It’s your own mental framework that determines how you perceive the information, how you feel, and, as a result, whether or not you are in the most conducive state of mind to spontaneously enter the flow and take advantage of whatever the market is offering.

4. The flaws of fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis creates what I call a “reality gap” between “what should be” and “what is.” The reality gap makes it extremely difficult to make anything but very long-term predictions that can be difficult to exploit, even if they are correct.

5. A good trader is a confident trader

I’ve worked with countless traders who would spend hours doing market analysis and planning trades for the next day Then, instead of putting on the trades they planned, they did something else. The trades they did put on were usually ideas from friends or tips from brokers. I probably don’t have to tell you that the trades they originally planned, but didn’t act on, were usually the big winners of the day. This is a classic example of how we become susceptible to unstructured, random trading—because we want to avoid responsibility.

6. Anything could happen

The best traders have evolved to the point where they believe, without a shred of doubt or internal conflict, that “anything can happen.” They don’t just suspect that anything can happen or give lip service to the idea. Their belief in uncertainty is so powerful that it actually prevents their minds from associating the “now moment” situation and circumstance with the outcomes of their most recent trades.

They have learned, usually quite painfully, that they don’t know in advance which edges are going to work and which ones aren’t. They have stopped trying to predict outcomes. They have found that by taking every edge, they correspondingly increase their sample size of trades, which in turn gives whatever edge they use ample opportunity to play itself out in their favor, just like the casinos.

7. Most people are obsessed with being right

Why do you think unsuccessful traders are obsessed with market analysis.They crave the sense of certainty that analysis appears to give them. Although few would admit it, the truth is that the typical trader wants to be right on every single trade. He is desperately trying to create certainty where it just doesn’t exist.

The typical trader won’t predefine the risk of getting into a trade because he doesn’t believe it’s necessary. The only way he could believe “it isn’t necessary” is if he believes he knows what’s going to happen next. The reason he believes he knows what’s going to happen next is because he won’t get into a trade until he is convinced that he’s right. At the point where he’s convinced the trade will be a winner, it’s no longer necessary to define the risk (because if he’s right, there is no risk). Typical traders go through the exercise of convincing themselves that they’re right before they get into a trade, because the alternative (being wrong) is simply unacceptable.

If he exposed himself to conflicting information, it would surely create some degree of doubt about the viability of the trade. If he allows himself to experience doubt, it’s very unlikely he will participate. If he doesn’t put the trade on and it turns out to be a winner, he will be in extreme agony. For some people, nothing hurts more than an opportunity recognized but missed because of self-doubt. For the typical trader, the only way out of this psychological dilemma is to ignore the risk and remain convinced that the trade is right.

8. Trading has nothing to do with being right or wrong on any individual trade

For the traders who have learned to think in probabilities, there is no dilemma. Predefining the risk doesn’t pose a problem for these traders because they don’t trade from a right or wrong perspective. They have learned that trading doesn’t have anything to do with being right or wrong on any individual trade. As a result, they don’t perceive the risks of trading in the same way the typical trader does.

9. We have to be rigid in our rules and flexible in our expectations

We need to be rigid in our rules so that we gain a sense of self-trust that can, and will always, protect us in an environment that has few, if any, boundaries. We need to be flexible in our expectations so we can perceive, with the greatest degree of clarity and objectivity, what the market is communicating to us from its perspective.

10. Market losses are simply the cost of doing business

When I put on a trade, all I expect is that something will happen. Regardless of how good I think my edge is, I expect nothing more than for the market to move or to express itself in some way. However, there are some things that I do know for sure. I know that based on the markets past behavior, the odds of it moving in the direction of my trade are good or acceptable, at least in relationship to how much I am willing to spend to find out if it does. I also know before getting into a trade how much I am willing to let the market move against my position. There is always a point at which the odds of success are greatly diminished in relation to the profit potential. At that point, it’s not worth spending any more money to find out if the trade is going to work. If the market reaches that point, I know without any doubt, hesitation, or internal conflict that I will exit the trade.

The loss doesn’t create any emotional damage, because I don’t interpret the experience negatively. To me, losses are simply the cost of doing business or the amount of money I need to spend to make myself available for the winning trades. If, on the other hand, the trade turns out to be a winner, in most cases I know for sure at what point I am going to take my profits. (If I don’t know for sure, I certainly have a very good idea.) The best traders are in the “now moment” because there’s no stress. There’s no stress because there’s nothing at risk other than the amount of money they are willing to spend on a trade. They are not trying to be right or trying to avoid being wrong; neither are they trying to prove anything. If and when the market tells them that their edges aren’t working or that it’s time to take profits, their minds do nothing to block this information. They completely accept what the market is offering them, and they wait for the next edge.
​
http://ivanhoff.com/2013/01/07/10-market-insights-from-mark-douglas/
 
MorningStar said:
TT đoạn này rất ma quái ....các đánh rất khó chịu.....
không có chuyện lên cả làng ... mà là trò tiền vào dòng nước này ra dòng nước khác :)
dồn tiền vào vài mã, có thể sẽ phải chờ đợi rất lâu để dòng tiền chú ý đến :)
Click to expand...

Tại sao không tìm ngay các em leader rồi chờ dịp phù hợp phi vào cưỡi, bao giờ chán/ hoặc có biến thì ra <= kiểu đánh của bác số dài.
Ngâm tôm ủ mưu chờ dòng tiền nóng sờ mó tới cũng hay, nhưng nếu nó không sờ mó tới thì bị kẹp tiền và kẹp cả tâm lý :) => không bằng ngồi ngoài.
 
chim_non said:
Tại sao không tìm ngay các em leader rồi chờ dịp phù hợp phi vào cưỡi, bao giờ chán/ hoặc có biến thì ra <= kiểu đánh của bác số dài.
Ngâm tôm ủ mưu chờ dòng tiền nóng sờ mó tới cũng hay, nhưng nếu nó không sờ mó tới thì bị kẹp tiền và kẹp cả tâm lý :) => không bằng ngồi ngoài.
Click to expand...
quá chuẩn :)
anh phím cho em vài mã vơi... đói thối mồm ra rồi :(
 
MorningStar said:
  • Anything can happen
  • You can make money without knowing what is going to happen next
  • There is a random distribution of wins and losses that define an edge
  • An edge is just the greater probability of one thing happening over another
  • Every moment in the market is unique
10 Market Insights from Mark Douglas
  • Posted by Ivanhoff
  • on January 7th, 2013


Share on StockTwits
1. The four trading fears

95% of the trading errors you are likely to make will stem from your attitudes about being wrong, losing money, missing out, and leaving money on the table – the four trading fears

2. The proverbial empathy gap

You may already have some awareness of much of what you need to know to be a consistently successful trader. But being aware of something doesn’t automatically make it a functional part of who you are. Awareness is not necessarily a belief. You can’t assume that learning about something new and agreeing with it is the same as believing it at a level where you can act on it.

3. The market doesn’t generate happy or painful information

From the markets perspective, it’s all simply information. It may seem as if the market is causing you to feel the way you do at any given moment, but that’s not the case. It’s your own mental framework that determines how you perceive the information, how you feel, and, as a result, whether or not you are in the most conducive state of mind to spontaneously enter the flow and take advantage of whatever the market is offering.

4. The flaws of fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis creates what I call a “reality gap” between “what should be” and “what is.” The reality gap makes it extremely difficult to make anything but very long-term predictions that can be difficult to exploit, even if they are correct.

5. A good trader is a confident trader

I’ve worked with countless traders who would spend hours doing market analysis and planning trades for the next day Then, instead of putting on the trades they planned, they did something else. The trades they did put on were usually ideas from friends or tips from brokers. I probably don’t have to tell you that the trades they originally planned, but didn’t act on, were usually the big winners of the day. This is a classic example of how we become susceptible to unstructured, random trading—because we want to avoid responsibility.

6. Anything could happen

The best traders have evolved to the point where they believe, without a shred of doubt or internal conflict, that “anything can happen.” They don’t just suspect that anything can happen or give lip service to the idea. Their belief in uncertainty is so powerful that it actually prevents their minds from associating the “now moment” situation and circumstance with the outcomes of their most recent trades.

They have learned, usually quite painfully, that they don’t know in advance which edges are going to work and which ones aren’t. They have stopped trying to predict outcomes. They have found that by taking every edge, they correspondingly increase their sample size of trades, which in turn gives whatever edge they use ample opportunity to play itself out in their favor, just like the casinos.

7. Most people are obsessed with being right

Why do you think unsuccessful traders are obsessed with market analysis.They crave the sense of certainty that analysis appears to give them. Although few would admit it, the truth is that the typical trader wants to be right on every single trade. He is desperately trying to create certainty where it just doesn’t exist.

The typical trader won’t predefine the risk of getting into a trade because he doesn’t believe it’s necessary. The only way he could believe “it isn’t necessary” is if he believes he knows what’s going to happen next. The reason he believes he knows what’s going to happen next is because he won’t get into a trade until he is convinced that he’s right. At the point where he’s convinced the trade will be a winner, it’s no longer necessary to define the risk (because if he’s right, there is no risk). Typical traders go through the exercise of convincing themselves that they’re right before they get into a trade, because the alternative (being wrong) is simply unacceptable.

If he exposed himself to conflicting information, it would surely create some degree of doubt about the viability of the trade. If he allows himself to experience doubt, it’s very unlikely he will participate. If he doesn’t put the trade on and it turns out to be a winner, he will be in extreme agony. For some people, nothing hurts more than an opportunity recognized but missed because of self-doubt. For the typical trader, the only way out of this psychological dilemma is to ignore the risk and remain convinced that the trade is right.

8. Trading has nothing to do with being right or wrong on any individual trade

For the traders who have learned to think in probabilities, there is no dilemma. Predefining the risk doesn’t pose a problem for these traders because they don’t trade from a right or wrong perspective. They have learned that trading doesn’t have anything to do with being right or wrong on any individual trade. As a result, they don’t perceive the risks of trading in the same way the typical trader does.

9. We have to be rigid in our rules and flexible in our expectations

We need to be rigid in our rules so that we gain a sense of self-trust that can, and will always, protect us in an environment that has few, if any, boundaries. We need to be flexible in our expectations so we can perceive, with the greatest degree of clarity and objectivity, what the market is communicating to us from its perspective.

10. Market losses are simply the cost of doing business

When I put on a trade, all I expect is that something will happen. Regardless of how good I think my edge is, I expect nothing more than for the market to move or to express itself in some way. However, there are some things that I do know for sure. I know that based on the markets past behavior, the odds of it moving in the direction of my trade are good or acceptable, at least in relationship to how much I am willing to spend to find out if it does. I also know before getting into a trade how much I am willing to let the market move against my position. There is always a point at which the odds of success are greatly diminished in relation to the profit potential. At that point, it’s not worth spending any more money to find out if the trade is going to work. If the market reaches that point, I know without any doubt, hesitation, or internal conflict that I will exit the trade.

The loss doesn’t create any emotional damage, because I don’t interpret the experience negatively. To me, losses are simply the cost of doing business or the amount of money I need to spend to make myself available for the winning trades. If, on the other hand, the trade turns out to be a winner, in most cases I know for sure at what point I am going to take my profits. (If I don’t know for sure, I certainly have a very good idea.) The best traders are in the “now moment” because there’s no stress. There’s no stress because there’s nothing at risk other than the amount of money they are willing to spend on a trade. They are not trying to be right or trying to avoid being wrong; neither are they trying to prove anything. If and when the market tells them that their edges aren’t working or that it’s time to take profits, their minds do nothing to block this information. They completely accept what the market is offering them, and they wait for the next edge.
​
http://ivanhoff.com/2013/01/07/10-market-insights-from-mark-douglas/
Click to expand...
Nể cụ thật, em đang đọc cái gì cụ cũng biết hết, như ma xó ý :( .
Đọc sách ngấm hơn là đọc quote cụ ạ. Đọc mà muốn Rơi Lệ vì quá trình cờ bạc của bản thân xưa nay...hic. Nhưng cũng có cái mừng là mấy tay chuyên nghiệp cũng dính chưởng y như mình, chỉ khác là họ đứng dậy và đi tiếp, còn mình thì ngồi liếm láp vết thương.
 
Chán said:
Nói chung là mình không nên quá tự tin vào nhận định của mình rồi bỏ qua tín hiệu phát ra từ Market. Cẩn thận tí chắc cũng không sao các cụ nhỉ :). Bất cứ chiện j cũng có thể xảy ra ngay ngày mai mà !
Click to expand...
Quan trọng là đi tiền thế nào mà bác. Có cái câu gì đại lọa ko đau ko sướng.
Phân tích xg thấy rủi ro, bán sạch cp xg nếu cái rủi ro giảm giá ko xảy ra thì mình dính ngay cái rủi ro mất lãi. Rồi lúc đấy lại phải tìm đường vào hàng và phải chấp nhận thêm rủi ro t+3...
Tóm lại là luôn kiểm soát rủi ro chứ ko sợ rủi ro.
 
tungneu said:
Quan trọng là đi tiền thế nào mà bác. Có cái câu gì đại lọa ko đau ko sướng.
Phân tích xg thấy rủi ro, bán sạch cp xg nếu cái rủi ro giảm giá ko xảy ra thì mình dính ngay cái rủi ro mất lãi. Rồi lúc đấy lại phải tìm đường vào hàng và phải chấp nhận thêm rủi ro t+3...
Tóm lại là luôn kiểm soát rủi ro chứ ko sợ rủi ro.
Click to expand...
Em không tu theo hướng này cụ ạ, nên cách nghĩ có khác cụ :(
 
Chán said:
Nể cụ thật, em đang đọc cái gì cụ cũng biết hết, như ma xó ý :( .
Đọc sách ngấm hơn là đọc quote cụ ạ. Đọc mà muốn Rơi Lệ vì quá trình cờ bạc của bản thân xưa nay...hic. Nhưng cũng có cái mừng là mấy tay chuyên nghiệp cũng dính chưởng y như mình, chỉ khác là họ đứng dậy và đi tiếp, còn mình thì ngồi liếm láp vết thương.
Click to expand...
dà không dám ạ :)

tình gì đâu.... tại em cũng đọc lâu rồi ạ...

em đang mong dduocj 1 góc của cụ đây lày :)
 
MorningStar said:
dà không dám ạ :)

tình gì đâu.... tại em cũng đọc lâu rồi ạ...

em đang mong dduocj 1 góc của cụ đây lày :)
Click to expand...
Em tính nghiền ngẫm xong cuốn này sẽ chuyển tiếp đến nghiền ngẫm sách của cụ Van Tharp. Cụ có cuốn sách nào hay của Van Tharp share em với :D
 
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